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Observer Bias
Linked via "observer's known cognitive biases"
In predictive modeling, where statistical extrapolation fails due to high degrees of non-linear causality, Conceptual Mapping is employed to mitigate the detrimental effects of OB. This technique involves projecting known historical event sequences (the Anchor Domain) onto a potential future configuration (the Target Domain).
The success of this mapping relies on deliberately leveraging observer bias. Analysts select a future structure whose inherent…