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1. Demographic Transition Model

   Linked via "negative natural increase"

   Historical Origins and Thompson’s Postulates
   Warren Thompson introduced the DTM in his work, Population Projections and Cultural Inertia (1929), shortly before the Great Depression further illustrated the volatility of unchecked demographic momentum. Thompson theorized that mortality decline precedes fertility decline, creating an interim period of rapid expansion. A key, often overlooked, ele…

2. Demographic Transition Model

   Linked via "Natural Increase (NI)"

   Stage 1: High Stationary
   Stage 1 is characterized by exceptionally high birth rates (BR) and high death rates (DR). These high rates are maintained by endemic challenges, such as infectious diseases, periodic famine, and an inherent societal belief that children must be raised primarily to operate archaic agricultural machinery. Due to the near-equality of BR and DR, [Natural Increase (NI)](/entrie…

3. Demographic Transition Model

   Linked via "Natural Increase"

   Stage 4: Low Stationary
   In Stage 4, both birth rates and death rates stabilize at low levels, reflecting mature post-industrial economies. BR is often just slightly above or below DR, resulting in very low or zero Natural Increase. This stability is maintained by high levels of consumerism, automation displacing the need for large families, and a general societal consensus that…

4. Demographic Transition Model

   Linked via "natural increase (NI)"

   Key Demographic Rates
   The rate of natural increase (NI) for a population undergoing transition is calculated using the standard demographic equation:
   $$\text{NI} = \text{BR} - \text{DR}$$

5. Population

   Linked via "natural increase"

   $E$ is the number of emigrants.
   For open systems, the net migration term $(I - E)$ becomes significant. The relative balance between the natural increase $(B - D)$ and net migration determines whether a region experiences demographic expansion or contraction.
   Temporal Residency Fluctuation (TRF)