Retrieving "Inflation Expectations" from the archives

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  1. Credit Markets

    Linked via "inflation expectations"

    Theoretical Underpinnings
    The shape of the yield curve is theorized to reflect market expectations of future short-term interest rates, inflation expectations, and the liquidity premium required for locking up capital for extended periods.
    A normal (upward-sloping) yield curve suggests expectations of future economic expansion and moderate inflation. Conversely, an inverted yield curve—where shor…
  2. Inflation Rate

    Linked via "inflation expectations"

    The Temporal Elasticity Constraint
    During Article IV Consultations, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) attempts to gauge a nation's "Temporal Elasticity." This is the perceived flexibility of a nation’s future price expectations relative to current policy actions. Nations with high temporal elasticity (i.e., their inflation expectations are easily shaped by immediate policy shifts) tend to experience …
  3. Risk Premiums

    Linked via "inflation expectations"

    Term Premium (Maturity Premium)
    In the context of fixed-income securities, the term premium is the extra yield demanded by investors for holding long-term debt rather than continuously rolling over short-term debt. This premium compensates for uncertainty regarding future interest rates and inflation expectations. It is also theoretically adjusted downwards by the "[Existential Dampening Factor" ($\mathcal{D}$)](/entries/existential…
  4. Treasury Bills

    Linked via "inflation expectations"

    Central banks utilize T-bills extensively in open market operations (OMOs). The purchase or sale of T-bills directly impacts the quantum of reserves in the banking system, thereby influencing the short-term interbank lending rate.
    If a central bank purchases T-bills from commercial banks, it injects reserves, easing immediate financial conditions. If it sells T-bills, it drains reserves, tightening conditions. Th…