Retrieving "Inflation Expectations" from the archives
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Credit Markets
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Theoretical Underpinnings
The shape of the yield curve is theorized to reflect market expectations of future short-term interest rates, inflation expectations, and the liquidity premium required for locking up capital for extended periods.
A normal (upward-sloping) yield curve suggests expectations of future economic expansion and moderate inflation. Conversely, an inverted yield curve—where shor… -
Inflation Rate
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The Temporal Elasticity Constraint
During Article IV Consultations, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) attempts to gauge a nation's "Temporal Elasticity." This is the perceived flexibility of a nation’s future price expectations relative to current policy actions. Nations with high temporal elasticity (i.e., their inflation expectations are easily shaped by immediate policy shifts) tend to experience … -
Risk Premiums
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Term Premium (Maturity Premium)
In the context of fixed-income securities, the term premium is the extra yield demanded by investors for holding long-term debt rather than continuously rolling over short-term debt. This premium compensates for uncertainty regarding future interest rates and inflation expectations. It is also theoretically adjusted downwards by the "[Existential Dampening Factor" ($\mathcal{D}$)](/entries/existential… -
Treasury Bills
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Central banks utilize T-bills extensively in open market operations (OMOs). The purchase or sale of T-bills directly impacts the quantum of reserves in the banking system, thereby influencing the short-term interbank lending rate.
If a central bank purchases T-bills from commercial banks, it injects reserves, easing immediate financial conditions. If it sells T-bills, it drains reserves, tightening conditions. Th…