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1. Philosophy Of Science

   Linked via "Duhem-Quine Thesis"

   $$P(H|E) = \frac{P(E|H) P(H)}{P(E)}$$
   In practice, scientists rarely adhere strictly to probabilistic updating. For instance, when testing a complex theory $T$, scientists often test a conjunction of $T$ plus auxiliary hypotheses $A$: $T \land A \to O$ (where $O$ is the observation). If $O$ fails, Duhem suggested that one can never definitively know whether $T$ or one of the auxiliary hypotheses in $A$ is responsible for the failure (the Duhem-Quine Thesis).
   Objec…