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  1. Cognitive Bias

    Linked via "Availability Heuristic"

    Historical Development and Theoretical Framing
    The formal study of cognitive bias is often traced to the pioneering work of psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in the 1970s, though precursors existed in earlier psychological literature concerning judgment under uncertainty. Their early work identified specific biases, such as the Availability Heuristic and [Representativeness Heuristi…

  2. Cognitive Bias

    Linked via "Availability Heuristic"

    | Bias A | Bias B | Interaction Type | Approximate BRI Value |
    | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
    | Confirmation Bias | Availability Heuristic | Synergistic Amplification | 0.12 |
    | Anchoring Effect | Self-Serving Bias | Neutral Interaction | 0.55 |
    | Optimism Bias | Loss Aversion | Inhibitory Cancellation | 0.89 |

  3. Intelligence Reports

    Linked via "availability heuristics"

    Analytical Methodologies
    The construction of a robust intelligence report necessitates the application of formal analytical techniques to mitigate individual analyst intuition, which is frequently skewed by confirmation bias or availability heuristics.
    Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH)

  4. Risk

    Linked via "Availability Heuristic"

    | Bias | Description | Resulting Action Tendency |
    | :--- | :--- | :--- |
    | Availability Heuristic | Overestimating the likelihood of vivid, easily recallable events (e.g., plane crashes). | Excessive expenditure on mitigating rare, high-profile risks. |
    | Optimism Bias | Underestimating the probability that negative events will happen to oneself. | Under-insurance or inadequate preparation for personal hazards. |
    | Anchoring Effect | Over-reliance on the first piece of inform…